Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Obama!
My final electoral map prediction, from about two weeks ago, had Obama over Romney 284 to 254. I considered it sufficiently pessimistic. I could not give Mitt Ohio. I thought the "Mitt momentum" was bogus, that he had stalled short of a winning tally. I gave Mitt Virginia, Florida & Iowa, although I had pretty good gut feeling about Virginia, nothing rational. If Mitt had won Ohio, he would have lost when Obama carried Virginia. I feared another messed up recount situation like 2000; I could see that potential in my map, likely focused on Ohio.
Obama had emphatic majorities in all the states he carried except Ohio & Virgina. Both of those states reelected Democratic senators.
Last I looked, Obama had run up a three million popular vote majority. It's not 2008, but Repugs never conceded that was any kind of mandate. I think a lot Americans wanted to send Obama home, with no real hard feelings. But Repugs, as currently constituted, cannot come up with candidate via primaries capable of cutting into a Democratic coalition that contains the vast majority of Hispanic voters, young voters, as well as women who do not want social safety nets eliminated or hear outrageous statements from men (& some women) about rape, right to choose, & matters intimately conditional on personal circumstances. The Repugs gave away two senate seats, in Missouri & Indiana, because of their misogynist candidates.
The bad news is we still have a crazy right wing obstructionist House. The good news is Repugs can't do what they said they would do if they controlled the White House & senate. Obama made conciliatory overtures last night, but he no longer believes it is really possible. He's a tougher, more realistic politician now.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." Thomas Jefferson
Obama had emphatic majorities in all the states he carried except Ohio & Virgina. Both of those states reelected Democratic senators.
Last I looked, Obama had run up a three million popular vote majority. It's not 2008, but Repugs never conceded that was any kind of mandate. I think a lot Americans wanted to send Obama home, with no real hard feelings. But Repugs, as currently constituted, cannot come up with candidate via primaries capable of cutting into a Democratic coalition that contains the vast majority of Hispanic voters, young voters, as well as women who do not want social safety nets eliminated or hear outrageous statements from men (& some women) about rape, right to choose, & matters intimately conditional on personal circumstances. The Repugs gave away two senate seats, in Missouri & Indiana, because of their misogynist candidates.
The bad news is we still have a crazy right wing obstructionist House. The good news is Repugs can't do what they said they would do if they controlled the White House & senate. Obama made conciliatory overtures last night, but he no longer believes it is really possible. He's a tougher, more realistic politician now.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, THE election
