Wednesday, November 07, 2012


My final electoral map prediction, from about two weeks ago,  had Obama over Romney 284 to 254. I considered it sufficiently pessimistic. I  could not give Mitt Ohio. I thought the "Mitt momentum" was bogus, that he had stalled short of a winning tally. I gave Mitt Virginia, Florida & Iowa, although I had pretty good gut feeling about Virginia, nothing rational. If Mitt had won Ohio, he would have lost when Obama carried Virginia. I feared another messed up recount situation like 2000; I could see that potential in my map, likely focused on Ohio.

Obama had emphatic majorities in all the states he carried except Ohio & Virgina. Both of those states reelected Democratic senators.

Last I looked, Obama had run up a three million popular vote majority. It's not 2008, but Repugs never conceded that was any kind of mandate. I think a lot Americans wanted to send Obama home, with no real hard feelings. But Repugs, as currently constituted, cannot come up with candidate via primaries capable of cutting into a Democratic coalition that contains the vast majority of Hispanic voters, young voters, as well as women who do not want social safety nets eliminated or hear outrageous statements from men (&  some women) about rape, right to choose, & matters  intimately conditional on personal circumstances. The Repugs gave away two senate seats, in Missouri & Indiana, because of their misogynist   candidates.

The bad news is we still have a crazy right wing obstructionist House. The good news is Repugs can't do what they said they would do if they controlled the White House & senate. Obama made conciliatory overtures last night, but he no longer believes it is  really possible. He's  a tougher, more realistic  politician now.

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