Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Where the President went terribly wrong in this campaign was his unwillingness to feel (or accept) how much white Americans want to change presidents; & this includes both centrist Americans giving him favorable ratings on likeability.  & Evangelicals who neither like nor trust Romney & consider him an apostate - the voters jumping from Bachmann to Santorum to Gingrich in the "anyone but Romney" primaries. They were all waiting for some ray of hope that Romney wasn't as awful  as they  believed he was. He gave that to them in the first debate, & didn't give up the gains he made there in second. All Obama managed to do was stem the bleeding. Tomorrow there ought to be some new polls better measuring trends since that third debate. I believed Obama's support so loose that he couldn't afford to give up an inch of it after the Convention, that whatever he lost would be very difficult to get back. Instead, he gave up a yard in the first debate. Voters have very short memories.  Forgotten in Mitt's "shift to the center" is every screwball idea from his primary opponents he either agreed with or failed to challenge, plus the fact that he tortured his dog.

That said, Obama still has 284 electoral votes on my interactive map, I gave Mitt Florida, North Carolina & Virginia before the first debate.

There are roughly 55 million registered Republicans. There are roughly 72 million Democrats. And there are roughly 42 million registered independents. That is less than 170 million people. There are more than 300 million Americans.

I don't think your analysis matters in this election, given the statistical make-up of the electorate. It is the general belief that in this election, both Republican voters and Democratic voters are locked in pretty solidly for their respective candidates, and that both sides are generally pandering for the limited undecideds. It is also a given that the majority of polls have Obama winning the election, despite the call allegedly being close.

Given the fact that Democrats and Republicans, in this election cycle, are solidly dug in for their respective sides, there is little wiggle room, partisan wise. With that in mind, the numbers clearly favor the Democrats, which is probably why we are reading so much about states run by Republican governors that are seriously tampering with voting rights in an attempt to disenfranchise the obviously Democratic majority.

Quite honestly, with registered Democratic voters far outweighing Republican voters, I find it incredulous that a Republican ever wins a presidential election. Makes me scratch my head and ponder the allegations of vote tampering.
True. It doesn't matter how many more votes Mitt picks up in Texas, Alabama & Oklahoma.

What concerns me isn't an electorate tipping toward Mitt, but votes slipping away from Obama - that is, not voting, which is how Republicans tend to win national elections since the 1994 "revolution." Vote tampering is far more beneficial to Repugs, as they learned in 2000. A few hundred here, a few thousand there. The all out assault on women's rights in this election is appalling.
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