Thursday, March 08, 2012
It'll be Barack in New Jersey
On his Wednesday radio show, former New York Governor David Paterson said he believed Mitt Romney would carry New Jersey in November. He seemed to have come to that conclusion based on Gov. Chris Christie's endorsement of Romney. I think it's highly unlikely.
New Jerseyans traditionally separate national from state politics. We don't even pay much attention to our senators & congressional reps, all of them low profile in D.C. Democrats have a voter registration advantage & better Get Out the Vote machinery. Independent voters in Jersey are mostly centrist; independent women voters are white & educated & generally not sympathetic toward right wing "values" appeals, or cutbacks in health care & education. African-American & Latino voters will be charged up to reelect President Obama, the Latinos also in support of Senator Robert Menendez, both of whom will carry huge majorities out of Jersey's urban areas.
President Obama will make a few public campaign appearances here when he's in Jersey for fund-raising. Hillary & Bill Clinton will campaign for Obama & Menendez (who endorsed Hillary in 2008). Both Clintons remain very popular with the Democratic Party base, & Bill can still excite a crowd of college students & look perfectly at ease in a Black Baptist church.
A February 29 Quinnipiac University Poll has Obama leading Romney 49% to 39% in NJ. With Gov. Christie on the ticket as VP, Obama still leads 49% to 43%, so Christie takes no support already given to Obama away from the President. With or without Christie, white women vote Democratic 55% to 35%, Since Romney has to concede New York & Connecticut, those dreary numbers, although changeable, do not invite a heavy Republican investment of money in the expensive New York City media market, which reaches 2/3rds of Jersey voters. Christie, whether or not he's the VP candidate, won't be campaigning much in Jersey either. He'll be dispatched to Ohio, PA, Virginia, & other potential blue to red pickups.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." Thomas Jefferson
New Jerseyans traditionally separate national from state politics. We don't even pay much attention to our senators & congressional reps, all of them low profile in D.C. Democrats have a voter registration advantage & better Get Out the Vote machinery. Independent voters in Jersey are mostly centrist; independent women voters are white & educated & generally not sympathetic toward right wing "values" appeals, or cutbacks in health care & education. African-American & Latino voters will be charged up to reelect President Obama, the Latinos also in support of Senator Robert Menendez, both of whom will carry huge majorities out of Jersey's urban areas.
President Obama will make a few public campaign appearances here when he's in Jersey for fund-raising. Hillary & Bill Clinton will campaign for Obama & Menendez (who endorsed Hillary in 2008). Both Clintons remain very popular with the Democratic Party base, & Bill can still excite a crowd of college students & look perfectly at ease in a Black Baptist church.
A February 29 Quinnipiac University Poll has Obama leading Romney 49% to 39% in NJ. With Gov. Christie on the ticket as VP, Obama still leads 49% to 43%, so Christie takes no support already given to Obama away from the President. With or without Christie, white women vote Democratic 55% to 35%, Since Romney has to concede New York & Connecticut, those dreary numbers, although changeable, do not invite a heavy Republican investment of money in the expensive New York City media market, which reaches 2/3rds of Jersey voters. Christie, whether or not he's the VP candidate, won't be campaigning much in Jersey either. He'll be dispatched to Ohio, PA, Virginia, & other potential blue to red pickups.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, THE election
