Monday, November 01, 2004

I don't have a prediction for this election. But I will make note of two things. First, the Washington Redskins lost their final homegame before Election Day. Second, the Electoral map tells me that it is very possible for Kerry to win without Florida, but I don't see how it's possible for Bush to win without the Sunshine State. That's not different from 2000; all Gore had to do was carry New Hampshire, which he lost by 7000 (Nader had 22,000). So the election may come down to New Hampshire again, or New Mexico. But not New Jersey - if Kerry loses here, he's lost. John Edwards probably helped Kerry in Missouri, Arkansas & Virginia, but not enough to carry those states. Forget North Carolina. Why do I always expect better of North Carolina? GOP Elizabeth Dole, Dem John Edwards, Dem. Governor Mike Easley, who will likely win re-election easily but had to ignore Kerry/Edwards to do it. & remember Jesse Helms?

New Jersey is closer than expected not because of Iraq, but because 9/11 is a vivid memory here & we all know that "Homeland Security" hasn't done much to protect public transit, & the Port of New York is a sieve. So there's an underlying anxiety & "strong leader" sentiment here & unfortunately we do not have a Sen. Chuck Schumer on the ticket. All other issues considered: economy, environment, social services, the use & abuse of our state National Guard in Iraq, Kerry would beat Bush here by at least 16%. That it is so close says less about Bush than about certain weaknesses in Kerry's campaign message. But the Jersey Democratic Party is far better at mobilizing vote on Election Day. Anyway, this election is almost anticlimatic compared to what happened last summer with Governor McGreevey.
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"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." Thomas Jefferson

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